This Week in Auto Racing August 6 - 8

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/03/2010 - Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It will be an enjoyable weekend of road course racing in both NASCAR and the IZOD IndyCar Series. The Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series wind their way through Watkins Glen, NY. The Camping World Truck Series competes on the Nashville Superspeedway oval. IndyCar will tackle the course at Mid-Ohio.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen - Watkins Glen International - Watkins Glen, NY

The Sprint Cup Series will run its second and final road course race of the season this weekend at Watkins Glen International in Upstate New York. The series competed at the Sonoma, CA course in June.

Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon are the "road course aces" at Watkins Glen, with Stewart winning here a record five times and Gordon having four victories.

Stewart claimed his most recent victory at Watkins Glen one year ago, a race that was delayed one day due to inclement weather. He conserved enough fuel late in the race and easily held off Marcos Ambrose at the finish for the win.

"It's a race that we always look forward to," said Stewart, who has finished either first or second in that last six races at Watkins Glen. "We've had a lot of success there, and it's just fun. It's like taking Sonoma and just multiplying the speed times three. It's just a lot faster track. It still has the same elevation changes, but you're just running a lot quicker. Both Sonoma and Watkins Glen are two places on the schedule that we really enjoy coming to."

Gordon holds the series record for most career road course wins. Five of them have come at Sonoma.

The last several races at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen have been wild affairs.

Last year at Watkins Glen, a spectacular multi-car crash occurred on lap 62 when Kasey Kahne got loose in turn nine and bumped Sam Hornish Jr., who spun hard into the tire barrier. Hornish then bounced back on the track and slammed violently into Gordon, who hit the barrier head on. Gordon spent additional time inside the track's infield medical center for evaluation, as a precaution for his recent back problems.

"I think the road courses are always intense and challenging in its own way," Gordon said. "I don't know if [Watkins Glen] will be as wild as Sonoma. In Sonoma, you can run side-by-side for half a lap on those double-file restarts. It's a special place.

"Watkins Glen is a lot faster, and you can't really run side-by-side up through the 'S's.' I don't think you'll see the same type of racing you saw at Sonoma, but you'll see a great race."

Gordon's wife, Ingrid, is expected to have the couple's second child in the coming days. Scott Pruett, a two-time Grand-Am Rolex Series champion and former NASCAR driver, is standing by if Gordon needs to leave Watkins Glen during the weekend to be with his wife.

In June, Gordon was a marked man in the Sonoma garage. Several drivers, particularly Martin Truex Jr., were furious with Gordon's aggressive driving throughout the 110-lap race.

Following the second restart on lap 61, Truex was running among the top-10, but Gordon slammed into the back of him and turned him around.

Gordon also tangled with Elliott Sadler and Kurt Busch during the 110-lap race. Gordon's Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jimmie Johnson, claimed his first road course victory in the series at Sonoma. Johnson benefited from Ambrose's costly mistake in the closing laps. Ambrose held the lead, but the Australian driver turned his engine off in an effort to conserve fuel. He slowed down on the track and lost the top position, as he fell to seventh. After the final restart, Johnson pulled ahead of Robby Gordon and then drove to his first road course win in 17 starts.

Can Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, establish himself as this year's "road course king?"

The Glen's been the better of the two tracks for me, so I feel real good about going back there," he said.

Ambrose, a road-course expert, certainly will be a favorite at Watkins Glen. He has yet to win his first Sprint Cup race, but he has finished second and third in the last two races here. Ambrose also has won the Nationwide race at The Glen in the past two seasons.

"Well it's the right course; that helps for me," Ambrose said. "The competition is fierce, and that track is high speed. It's got an old style feel to it. There's a lot of banking in the turns, and a lot of high-speed corners. It fits what I like in a racetrack. It fits my style pretty well."

Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen.

Nationwide Series

Zippo 200 - Watkins Glen International - Watkins Glen, NY

The Nationwide Series will join Sprint Cup this weekend at Watkins Glen International. This will be the second of three road course races for Nationwide this year. Carl Edwards won the inaugural event at the Road America road course in Wisconsin two months ago. Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal is scheduled for August 29.

Marcos Ambrose will attempt to win his third consecutive Nationwide race at Watkins Glen. If Ambrose does so, he will join Terry Labonte as those drivers who have won three Nationwide events in a row here. Labonte won at The Glen from 1994-96. He also scored the victory in the inaugural race here in 1991.

Ambrose, a Sprint Cup regular, has yet to compete in a Nationwide event this year. He ran a full-schedule in that series from 2007-08 before he was elevated to Cup full-time last year.

Ambrose competed in just two Nationwide races during the '09 season, with a win at Watkins Glen and a second-place finish at Montreal.

"I've got a good base setup that I carry to all the road course races, and I really know what I'm looking for," Ambrose said. "We don't have to muck around with trial and error, and I pretty much engineer it from the seat, because I have such a clear vision of what I need to do to get around these places well. I guess I lacked that at some ovals and other places we go to."

Kyle Busch is perhaps Ambrose's biggest threat for a three-peat at Watkins Glen. Busch has accumulated nine wins in his 17 Nationwide starts this year, including victories at Iowa last Saturday and O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis the week before. He is one win away from tying the series record for most victories in a season with 10, a record he shares with Sam Ard.

One more win in either the Sprint Cup, Nationwide or Camping World Series will give the 25-year-old Busch his 75th career victory in NASCAR.

"It's pretty big," Busch said. "It's a lot of them, but it's not quite where I want to be. The big number is 200, so hopefully I can get there. We're 25 away from cracking halfway there, and I might be able to get it here in the next two years, so that would be pretty cool."

Richard Petty holds the all-time record with 200 wins in NASCAR's premier series.

Busch has finished second to Ambrose in the last two Nationwide races at Watkins Glen.

Last year, Ambrose passed Busch late in the race, with a maneuver Ambrose called a "dive bomb," and one Busch referred to as "cheap-shotted."

Forty-two teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Zippo 200.

Camping World Truck Series

Nashville 200 - Nashville Superspeedway - Lebanon, TN

For the first time this year, the Camping World Truck Series will run at Nashville Superspeedway twice in the same season. Nashville picked up a second date for the 2010 truck season when the track's owner, Dover Motorsports, announced last October the closure of its Memphis property.

The series traditionally has competed at Nashville in the summer time. During the first weekend in April, Kyle Busch spent his Sprint Cup off-week by winning the truck event here. He will not compete in Saturday night's race due to his Cup and Nationwide Series obligations at Watkins Glen, NY.

Last Saturday when the trucks ran at Pocono for the first time, Aric Almirola slightly cut into Todd Bodine's points lead after Almirola finished fourth, compared to a 12th-place run for Bodine. With the 25-race season just past its half-way point, Bodine holds a 149-point advantage.

Four-time and defending series champion Ron Hornaday Jr. continued to tumble in the standings after a 29th-place finish at Pocono. Hornaday dropped to seventh in points (-268).

When the series raced at Nashville last year, Hornaday extended his series record to five consecutive race victories. He became the first driver to win five in a row in one of NASCAR's three national touring series since 1971. Richard Petty and Bobby Allison both did it in the Cup Series in 1971.

Hornaday also won a truck race at Nashville for the first time, as he finally earned his long-awaited Gibson guitar trophy.

"It's cool to look back on it and remember the win," Hornaday said. "I was just so excited to finally get that beautiful Gibson guitar. That is a very cool trophy. The thing about Nashville is that [Kevin Harvick Inc.] has run very well there with both our Truck and Nationwide programs. When we were in Nashville earlier this spring, Kevin and I just missed the set-up by a little. We have notes and are better prepared to go back to Nashville. I know we're going to have a great truck. I hope we have the same result as last year."

Hornaday's sixth and final win during his 2009 championship season came at Nashville. He had been without a victory this season until two weeks ago when he took O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis.

Thirty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Nashville 200.

IZOD INDYCAR SERIES

Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio - Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course - Lexington, OH

After running its last two races in Canada, the IZOD IndyCar Series returns to the United States with this weekend's Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. Mid-Ohio is the eighth of nine road/street course events on this year's schedule. The series will conclude road/street course racing for the season in two weeks at Sonoma, CA.

Last month's race at Edmonton turned out to be a bizarre finish and an expensive outcome for Team Penske driver Helio Castroneves.

Castroneves was leading in the closing laps at Edmonton when he was issued a black flag for blocking his teammate, Will Power, just after the final restart. He failed to take the drive-through pit-lane penalty.

At the conclusion of the race, Castroneves was penalized 20 seconds and placed at the tail end of the lead lap, which resulted in a 10th-place finish. Castroneves had crossed the line first, but Scott Dixon was awarded the win.

Castroneves was furious with the outcome of the race. He confronted two officials on pit road and made physical contact with one of them after he exited his car.

As a result, IndyCar officials earlier this week fined Castroneves $60,000 and placed him on probation for the remainder of the year for his post-race outburst at Edmonton. The Brazilian driver recently met with officials in Indianapolis to discuss his actions.

"I regret what occurred following the IZOD IndyCar Series race in Edmonton, and I apologize for my behavior, as I let my emotions get the better of me," Castroneves said in a statement. "Although my disappointment with being black- flagged while leading the race with just a few laps to go will probably always remain with me, I understand and accept the league's decision to penalize me for my reaction.

"I am ready to move forward, and I'm hoping to add to Team Penske's success at Mid-Ohio this weekend."

Heading to Mid-Ohio, Power holds a 50-point lead over Dario Franchitti, the defending series champion, and a 71-point advantage over Dixon, who is Franchitti's Chip Ganassi Racing teammate.

Power could clinch the series' new road/street course championship on Sunday. Earlier this year, IndyCar announced the expansion of its championship format, with the highest-scoring oval and road/street course drivers winning separate titles, starting this season.

So far, Power has won four road/street course events -- Sao Paulo, Brazil; St. Petersburg, FL; Watkins, NY and Toronto.

After Sonoma, the series will run its final four races on ovals.

The October 2 season-finale at Homestead will determine the oval titleholder and the overall IndyCar champion.

Dixon won last year's race at Mid-Ohio. He also scored the victory in the inaugural event here in 2007.

Twenty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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